Trading on Naugur involves real financial risk. The information below describes the principal risks of using the Service. It is not exhaustive. You should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.
1. Risk of total loss
Each contract on Naugur resolves to either $1 or $0. If you hold the losing side at resolution, your position settles at zero. You may lose the full amount you allocated to a trade.
2. Prices are estimates, not predictions
Market prices reflect probability estimates derived from market activity and external event data. They are not guarantees, forecasts, or recommendations. Outcomes that appear likely can still fail to occur, and outcomes that appear unlikely can still occur.
3. Liquidity and slippage
Markets vary in depth. Larger trades will move the price against you. During fast-moving events, spreads can widen sharply and orders may execute at materially different prices than displayed. Pre-resolution and post-resolution windows may have limited or no liquidity.
4. Oracle and resolution risk
Markets resolve based on the resolution source described on each market page (an automated oracle, an admin decision, or a combination). Oracle feeds can be delayed, incorrect, or unavailable; resolution sources can be ambiguous or contested. We may need to pause, cancel, or re-resolve a market in exceptional circumstances. You may experience delays in claiming winnings.
5. Smart-contract risk
Trades and settlements rely on smart contracts deployed on Polygon. Smart contracts can contain bugs, can be exploited, or can behave unexpectedly under network conditions we do not control. Audits reduce but do not eliminate these risks. Funds held by contracts may be lost or temporarily inaccessible.
6. Blockchain and network risk
Polygon may experience congestion, reorgs, or outages. Transactions may take longer than expected to confirm, may fail, or may revert. On-chain gas fees fluctuate and are paid in the network's native token.
7. Wallet and key risk
Naugur uses non-custodial wallets keyed to your sign-in method. Loss of access to your sign-in method can result in loss of access to your wallet and the funds it holds. You are responsible for protecting your sign-in credentials.
8. USDC and stablecoin risk
Markets are denominated in USDC. The value of USDC depends on the issuer's ability to maintain its peg to the U.S. dollar. Stablecoins can depeg, be frozen, or otherwise lose value.
9. Regulatory and jurisdictional risk
The legal status of prediction markets varies by country and by state or province. Access from certain jurisdictions is restricted or prohibited. Regulations may change with little notice and may require us to restrict your account, withdraw products, or share information with authorities. You are responsible for understanding and complying with the laws that apply to you.
10. Tax risk
Profits and losses from trading event-based contracts may be taxable in your jurisdiction. Naugur does not provide tax advice. Consult a qualified tax professional.
11. No advice
Nothing on the Service constitutes investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Markets, prices, and information shown are for informational purposes only.
12. Acknowledgement
By using the Service you acknowledge that you have read and understood this Risk Disclosure and accept that you may lose any amounts you trade.