Naugur exists so that prices mean something. A prediction market is only useful if its prices are an honest estimate of probability — and that is only true when markets resolve to the truth, free from manipulation, and on terms every trader could read in advance. This page describes the commitments and controls that protect the integrity of every market on Naugur.
1. Clear, pre-stated resolution terms
Every market is published with its resolution criteria, rules, and the source(s) that will decide the outcome before trading begins. The resolution source for a market is shown on the market page and does not change after launch. Sports markets resolve from official league and venue scoring feeds; politics, finance, and world-event markets resolve from the named authoritative sources listed in each market’s rules.
If an outcome is genuinely ambiguous, void, or the resolution source fails, a market may be resolved N/A. When that happens, open positions are closed and settled at their current share price rather than forced to a wrong answer.
2. Independent, auditable resolution
Sports markets are resolved automatically by oracles that read the official scoreboard — no human discretion sits between the final whistle and settlement. For markets resolved by an operator, we record an evidence log with timestamps and source links so that any resolution can be reviewed after the fact. On-chain markets settle through the published smart contracts; the contract addresses and resolver are shown on the market page.
3. Prohibited conduct
The following are forbidden and may result in cancelled trades, forfeited positions, account suspension, and reporting to authorities:
- Manipulation — wash trading, spoofing, layering, ramping, or any trading whose purpose is to move a price rather than express a view.
- Collusion — coordinating accounts to move, pin, or split a market, or to evade position limits.
- Multiple / sybil accounts — operating more than one account, or accounts on behalf of others, to amplify influence or abuse promotions.
- Insider or non-public information — trading on material information about an event’s outcome that is not available to the public and that you have a duty to keep confidential.
- Outcome interference — attempting to affect the real-world event a market is about, or its reported result.
- Exploiting errors — knowingly trading against an obvious pricing, feed, or settlement error instead of reporting it.
4. Surveillance and controls
Naugur runs automated surveillance over trading activity. Position limits and per-trade caps bound how much any single account can move a market. An anti-arbitrage cooldown and stale-feed protection guard against trading through a price that is mid-update. Markets are fully collateralised — escrow always covers the larger side — so winners can always be paid. Suspicious activity is flagged for review and may be frozen pending investigation.
5. Disputes and corrections
If you believe a market resolved incorrectly, contact us through the Help Center within seven (7) days of resolution with the market and your reasoning. We will review the resolution against the market’s pre-stated source and rules. Where a clear, verifiable error occurred — for example a settlement against the wrong reported result — we will correct the resolution and re-settle affected positions. Honest disagreement with a correctly-sourced outcome is not grounds for reversal.
6. Operator conduct
Naugur and its team do not trade for profit against our own users in markets where we hold non-public operational information, and we do not alter a market’s resolution terms after launch to favour any outcome. Treasury and fee movements are governed by a multi-signature wallet.
7. Reporting
If you spot manipulation, a market that looks mispriced because of abuse, or a resolution problem, please tell us through the Help Center. Reports are reviewed and, where you wish, kept confidential. Protecting market integrity is a shared responsibility, and good-faith reports make every market on Naugur more trustworthy.
This page complements our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure. Where they differ, the Terms of Service govern.